Blog

Data-driven investment analysis and guides.

·6 min read

What If You Bought Bitcoin in the February 2026 Dip?

Bitcoin closed February 2026 near $67,000 after sliding from its December peak. As of the latest monthly close it is back to about $79,900. A $10,000 buy at the February low would be worth roughly $11,900 today, up +19.2%. Here is the honest version, including what the peak buyers are sitting on.

·7 min read

What If You Bought the S&P 500 Right After the Liberation Day Crash?

After the April 2, 2025 Liberation Day tariff shock, the S&P 500 closed April near 548 on SPY. As of the latest monthly close it is about 736. A $10,000 buy at the end of that month would be worth roughly $13,400 today, up +34.2%. Gold beat it. Bitcoin lost money. The full picture.

·7 min read

$500 a Month in the Nasdaq vs the S&P 500 Over 20 Years: Which Won?

$500 a month into the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) for 20 years turned $120,500 of contributions into about $1,047,900. The same plan in the S&P 500 (SPY) reached about $561,100. The Nasdaq nearly doubled the index, but the volatility was real. Here are the actual numbers, dividends caveat included.

·9 min read

Real Estate vs the S&P 500 Over 25 Years: The Comparison That Surprises People

Median U.S. home prices grew from about $145K in 2000 to roughly $440K in 2025 - a 4.7% annualized return. The S&P 500 returned 7.5% annualized over the same period. But the real estate vs stocks debate is more nuanced than the headline number suggests.

·8 min read

The S&P 500 Under Every President Since Reagan: Returns Side by Side

Stock market returns by president, from Reagan to today. Clinton produced the highest annualized return at +15.2%. George W. Bush produced the lowest at -4.4%. Here is the data, with the caveats every honest analysis has to include.

·8 min read

Defense Stocks vs the S&P 500: 25 Years of Returns

$1,000 in Lockheed Martin in 2000 is worth $63,236 today vs $7,387 in SPY. Northrop +5,020%. RTX +1,901%. Boeing trailed the index. The long-horizon view of every major U.S. defense contractor.

·7 min read

What If You Invested $500 a Month in the S&P 500 for 30 Years?

Investing $500 a month for 30 years totals $180,000 in contributions. At the historical S&P 500 return of 10% annualized, the ending value is roughly $1.13 million. Here is the year-by-year math, what inflation does to it, and why most people get the simulation wrong.

·9 min read

What If You Bought the Dot-Com Survivors at the 2000 Peak?

$1,000 in Apple in 2000 is worth $325,851. The same in Intel: $1,654 - barely above inflation. Cisco still trades near its dot-com entry. The full range of outcomes for nine survivors, 26 years later.

·8 min read

Berkshire Hathaway vs S&P 500: 30 Years of Returns Compared

$1,000 in BRK.B in 1996 is worth $23,407 today vs $17,169 in SPY. Berkshire crushed the index from 1996 to 2009. Since 2010, the S&P 500 has pulled ahead. The two-halves story behind Buffett's career.

·8 min read

Lump Sum vs Dollar-Cost Averaging: 25 Years of S&P 500 Data

Lump sum beat 12-month DCA in 78% of historical S&P 500 windows. The 22% where DCA wins is concentrated around peaks. Here are the actual numbers.

·8 min read

Magnificent 7 vs the Other 493: What $10,000 in Each Would Be Worth

$10,000 split across the Mag 7 in 2020 is worth $73,268 today. The same $10,000 in SPY: $22,030. In the rest of the S&P 500: roughly $18,050. The concentration story, with the actual numbers.

·8 min read

What If You Never Panic Sold? $10,000 in the S&P 500 Since 2000

Miss the 10 best trading days out of 6,616 and your $77,539 becomes $33,645. Miss 40 and you lose money over 26 years. The April 9, 2025 tariff pause was the #3 best day in 26 years.

·6 min read

What If You Bought Bitcoin at $10,000? Your Return Today vs. the S&P 500

Bitcoin crossed $10,000 for the first time in November 2017. $1,000 invested then is worth $6,498 today - a +550% return. Here's how it compares to the S&P 500, and what the drawdowns looked like along the way.

·5 min read

What If You Invested in Gold Instead of the S&P 500 During the 2026 Tariff Shock?

$10,000 in gold (GLD) since 2023 is worth $23,890 today vs $16,620 in the S&P 500. How tariff uncertainty drove gold to outperform stocks by a wide margin.

·5 min read

What If You Invested in Nvidia Instead of the S&P 500 Five Years Ago?

$10,000 in Nvidia in 2020 is worth $280,690 today. The same amount in the S&P 500: $22,030. A look at the biggest return gap in recent market history.

·5 min read

What If You Invested in Defense Stocks When the Iran Conflict Started?

Defense stocks have massively outperformed the S&P 500 in 2026. We ran the numbers on Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman, and more.

·6 min read

What If You Invested in Oil Stocks Before Every Major Middle East Conflict?

From the Gulf War to the 2026 Iran conflict, oil stocks have surged during every Middle East crisis. Here are the actual returns.

·5 min read

What If You Invested in SpaceX's Early Backers Instead?

You couldn't buy SpaceX stock. But the publicly traded companies riding the space economy have delivered massive returns.

·4 min read

What $10,000 Invested in Nvidia in 2015 Would Be Worth Today

Nvidia has been the best-performing major stock of the last decade. We ran the numbers on a $10,000 investment from 2015.

·5 min read

The Worst Times to Invest (and Why It Didn't Matter)

What if you invested right before the dot-com crash, the 2008 financial crisis, or the 2020 pandemic? The results might surprise you.

·4 min read

Apple vs Microsoft: 25 Years of Investment Returns

Two of the biggest companies in history, head to head. We compared $1,000 in Apple vs $1,000 in Microsoft from 2000 to today.

·4 min read

What Inflation Really Does to Your Cash

$1,000 in cash since 2000 has lost nearly half its purchasing power. Here are the real numbers and what they mean for your savings.

·4 min read

Bitcoin vs the S&P 500: The Real Numbers

Bitcoin vs traditional stocks. We compared $1,000 in Bitcoin vs $1,000 in the S&P 500 across multiple time periods.

·4 min read

If You Invested Your College Tuition in Stocks Instead

The average 4-year college costs $104,000. What if you had invested that in the S&P 500 or top stocks instead?

·4 min read

The 5 Best Investments of the 2020s (So Far)

From pandemic lows to AI mania, the 2020s have been wild. Here are the top-performing investments since January 2020.

·5 min read

AI Stocks: What $1,000 in 2020 Would Be Worth Today

We calculated what $1,000 in 10 AI stocks would be worth if you invested in January 2020, before the AI boom.

·4 min read

What If You Invested in Micron Before Every Earnings Report

Micron is one of the most volatile chip stocks. We calculated what $1,000 would be worth from six different start years.

·4 min read

What If You Invested in Reddit's IPO

Reddit went public in March 2024. Less than two years later, the stock has nearly tripled. Here are the numbers.

·5 min read

Moderna's Roller Coaster: What $1,000 at Every Stage Would Be Worth

Pandemic hero, 90% crash, 2026 comeback. We calculated what $1,000 in Moderna would be worth from three different entry points.

·5 min read

Semiconductor Stocks: 5-Year Returns Compared

We compared 12 semiconductor stocks side by side. From Nvidia to Intel, the gap in returns is staggering.

·5 min read

The 10 Best Performing Stocks of the Last 20+ Years

Which stocks turned $1,000 into a fortune? We ranked every company in our database by total return from the earliest available start year.

·4 min read

How to Calculate Investment Returns (Total Return, CAGR Explained)

Total return, annualized return, CAGR. What they mean, how to calculate them, and why they matter when comparing investments.

·4 min read

What $1,000 Invested in the S&P 500 Would Be Worth Today

We calculated what a $1,000 investment in the S&P 500 would be worth from six different start years, from 2000 to 2023.

Numbers worth sharing

Occasional data drops when something interesting surfaces. No schedule, just signal.