What If You Bought the S&P 500 Before Every Midterm Election?
The 2026 midterm elections are on Tuesday, November 3. Every midterm season brings the same worry: the outcome is uncertain, control of Congress could flip, and maybe it is smarter to wait until the votes are counted. That is a testable idea. This site holds monthly S&P 500 prices back to 1993, which covers 8 midterm elections, so we ran the plain version of the trade: buy SPY at the end of October, the last monthly close before the vote, and hold.
The Year After Every Midterm Since 1994
Here is each midterm, how the market did in the months before the vote (from the prior December close to the October close), and what buying at that October close returned twelve months later.
| Midterm | Going in (Jan to Oct) | 12 months after |
|---|---|---|
| 1994 | +3.8% | +25.9% |
| 1998 | +14.4% | +26.0% |
| 2002 | -21.7% | +20.9% |
| 2006 | +12.1% | +14.3% |
| 2010 | +7.8% | +8.0% |
| 2014 | +10.7% | +5.2% |
| 2018 | +2.7% | +14.3% |
| 2022 | -17.7% | +10.0% |
All 8 were higher a year later. The range ran from +5.2% after the 2014 midterm to +26.0% after 1998, and the average was +15.6%. The column on the left is the part worth sitting with. In 2002 and 2022, the market went into the vote down sharply (21.7% and 17.7%), which is exactly when waiting feels wisest. Buying anyway paid: +20.9% after 2002 and +10.0% after 2022.
$10,000 at Each Midterm, Today
Stretch the holding period from one year to the present and here is what $10,000 bought at each pre-election October close would be worth at the September 2026 close.
| Bought October | $10,000 became | Annualized |
|---|---|---|
| 1994 | $280,999 | +11.0% |
| 1998 | $112,482 | +9.1% |
| 2002 | $133,234 | +11.4% |
| 2006 | $79,781 | +11.0% |
| 2010 | $85,239 | +14.4% |
| 2014 | $46,150 | +13.7% |
| 2018 | $31,763 | +15.7% |
| 2022 | $20,798 | +20.6% |
Put $10,000 in before each of the 8 midterms and the $80,000 would be worth about $790,445 today. The older entries did most of the work, which is the point: the vote was a blip in each of these holding periods, not the thing that decided them.
Why the Pattern Shows Up
The usual explanation is uncertainty. Before a midterm, the market does not know which party will control Congress, and uncertainty tends to weigh on prices. After the vote, whatever the result, that question is answered. Midterms also often produce a divided government, which makes big policy swings less likely. Neither of those is a law of nature. They are reasons the pattern might exist, not proof that it will repeat.
Our 8 cycles are not the only evidence. Capital Group, the fund manager, looked further back and reported that since 1950 the average one-year S&P 500 return after a midterm was 15.4%, with no negative year in its sample, which ran through 2023 (Capital Group, January 2026). That is their study, on their data, not ours.
Where 2026 Stands
From the December 2025 close to the September 2026 close, the S&P 500 is up 12.7% this year. The October 2026 close, the entry point this piece tests, has not happened yet, so the 2026 cycle is the one question this table cannot answer.
The Honest Caveats
8 cycles is a small sample, and 8 for 8 is a record, not a promise. A recession, a crisis, or a valuation reset can land in any year, election or not. The figures use SPY monthly closing prices from Yahoo Finance, adjusted for splits and dividends, with the entry snapped to the October close before each vote and no taxes or fees. The window is the full price history behind this site, 1993 through September 2026. Past performance does not predict future results, and nothing here is investment advice.
If you like testing calendar and political timing, we also ran the S&P 500 under every president since Reagan, buying at the start of every Fed hiking cycle, and sitting out every September. They point the same way: the calendar and the news make loud arguments for waiting, and the record has mostly paid people who did not.