Bitcoin vs S&P 500 vs Gold Since 2015: Three Stores of Value, One Decade
BTC-USD · SPY · GLD · Since 2015 · $1,000 split across each
This is the "three asset classes, one chart" comparison that only makes sense on a log scale. Gold is the 5,000-year-old store of value. The S&P 500 is the default equity benchmark. Bitcoin is the digital-asset newcomer that did not have a meaningful price history before 2013.
Over this window, the returns are not close. What is worth looking at is not which won, but the shape of each line: gold meandering, the S&P compounding smoothly, Bitcoin in enormous arcs that trace the four-year cycle.
What the chart shows
Log scale is mandatory
On a linear chart, gold and the S&P 500 both look flat because Bitcoin dominates the axis. Switch to log and all three lines are legible, and the S&P 500 story becomes visible.
Bitcoin had two 80 percent drawdowns in this window
2018 and 2022 each cut Bitcoin by roughly 75 to 80 percent from the prior peak. Buying the 2017 peak and holding to today still produced a positive return, but the path was brutal. Dollar-cost averaging smooths this considerably.
Gold had a real decade
After a flat 2013 to 2018, gold ran from $1,050 to over $3,000 per ounce by 2025. A 2015 entry produced roughly 3x over the decade, which is unusually good for gold and competitive with many single stocks.
The S&P 500 was the "efficient" choice
Lower volatility than either, and still tripled over the decade. The risk-adjusted return beat both Bitcoin and gold by conventional measures, even if the absolute return was well below Bitcoin.
Correlations broke down exactly when it mattered
The "Bitcoin is digital gold" thesis looked strongest in 2020 and weakest in 2022 when both Bitcoin and equities sold off while gold held up. Through 2024 and 2025 the three have diverged again, with gold leading for different reasons than Bitcoin.
Frequently asked questions
Is Bitcoin a hedge against inflation?
The evidence is mixed. Bitcoin outperformed during the 2020 to 2021 inflation surge, then dropped more than equities during the 2022 rate-hike cycle. It has traded more like a risk asset than an inflation hedge through most of this window.
Why GLD and not physical gold?
GLD is the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, which tracks spot gold price minus a small expense ratio. Physical gold returns would be nearly identical, minus storage and insurance costs. Using GLD gives an apples-to-apples comparison with other tradeable assets.
What about adding dollar cost averaging?
A lump-sum 2015 entry is the simplest comparison, but DCA would have smoothed Bitcoin's drawdowns and slightly reduced the final value (because Bitcoin trended up). DCA favored Bitcoin over 2018 to 2021 specifically.
What were the maximum drawdowns?
Bitcoin: roughly 80 percent (multiple times). S&P 500: 34 percent in 2020, 25 percent in 2022. Gold: 20 percent peak-to-trough over this window. Interactive chart shows each path.
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For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All calculations are based on split-adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance and do not account for dividends, taxes, or trading fees. See our methodology and full disclaimer.