Pfizer vs Moderna vs Johnson & Johnson Since 2020: The Vaccine-Era Pharma Trade
PFE · MRNA · JNJ · Since 2020 · $1,000 split across each
For two years, these were the most-watched stocks in healthcare. The COVID-19 vaccines turned a biotech that had never sold a product into a household name and gave two pharma giants a temporary revenue windfall. Starting in 2020 captures both the boom and the hangover.
The honest lesson of this chart is about round trips. The vaccine trade was spectacular and then it reversed, and the stock that ran the furthest also gave back the most. This is a case study in why a blockbuster product does not guarantee a lasting stock return.
What the chart shows
Moderna is the round-trip story
Moderna went up roughly 20x from early 2020 to its 2021 peak, then gave most of it back as vaccine demand collapsed. Measured from January 2020 it is still ahead of its peers, but the path was a mountain and a cliff, not a climb. Entry timing dominates the Moderna return.
Pfizer gave back its entire windfall
Pfizer earned enormous vaccine and antiviral revenue in 2021 and 2022, and the stock still finished the window below where it started. The market treated the COVID revenue as one-time and repriced the stock once it faded. It is the laggard of the three.
Johnson & Johnson was the boring winner on a risk basis
J&J barely participated in the vaccine mania and barely participated in the crash that followed. Its diversified healthcare business produced a steady, low-volatility return that beat Pfizer over the window without ever making headlines.
A blockbuster product is not a lasting return
The central lesson: all three sold enormous quantities of pandemic products, and two of the three still ended up flat or down. Markets price durable earnings, not one-time windfalls. Dividends, not shown here, added to Pfizer and J&J.
Frequently asked questions
Which pharma stock was the best investment since 2020?
From a January 2020 start, Moderna is still ahead on a price basis despite its enormous drawdown, followed by Johnson & Johnson, with Pfizer the laggard and slightly negative. The ranking is highly sensitive to the start date given Moderna's volatility.
Why did Pfizer fall after making so much vaccine money?
The market treated Pfizer's COVID revenue as temporary and repriced the stock as that revenue faded in 2023 and 2024. A patent cliff on several older drugs added to the pressure. Peak earnings did not translate into a peak stock price that held.
Is Moderna a good long-term investment?
This is not financial advice. Moderna's challenge is proving its mRNA platform can produce revenue beyond COVID vaccines. The stock's enormous swings reflect that open question. Use /calculator/?t=MRNA to model different entry points.
What about dividends?
Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson are established dividend payers; Moderna pays none. Including dividends would help Pfizer and J&J modestly. These figures are price-only.
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For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All calculations are based on split-adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance and do not account for dividends, taxes, or trading fees. See our methodology and full disclaimer.