ExxonMobil vs Chevron vs ConocoPhillips Since 2015: The Oil Majors, Through the Cycle
XOM · CVX · COP · Since 2015 · $1,000 split across each
The three largest US oil companies spent this decade riding one of the wildest commodity cycles on record: the 2015 to 2016 price crash, the 2020 collapse when oil futures briefly went negative, and the 2022 windfall after Russia invaded Ukraine. Charting them together shows how tightly they track the underlying commodity.
What is worth noticing is how close the three finished despite very different strategies. This is a sector where the commodity price does most of the work, and stock selection within it matters less than the timing of your entry.
What the chart shows
The three tracked each other closely
Unlike tech or banks, the oil majors moved almost as one over the decade. All three are levered to the same crude and natural gas prices, so the gaps between them stayed narrow. The chart is three lines that mostly overlap.
2020 was the trough that defined the decade
The pandemic demand collapse took all three to multi-year lows in 2020. An investor who bought that bottom saw the strongest returns of the window; one who bought the 2018 high spent years underwater. Entry point is the whole story in energy.
2022 was the windfall
The post-invasion spike in oil and gas prices drove the best year of the decade for all three. Energy was the top-performing S&P 500 sector in 2022 by a wide margin, a reversal from years of being the worst.
Dividends are a large part of the real return
Oil majors are known for high, defended dividends, typically 3 to 5 percent yield. These price-only figures understate the total return meaningfully, more so than in most sectors. A full-return chart would lift all three noticeably.
Frequently asked questions
Which oil major performed best since 2015?
The three finished close together on a price basis, with the ranking sensitive to the exact end date. Chevron and ExxonMobil traded the top spot through most of the window. The interactive tool shows current figures.
Why are the returns so similar?
All three are primarily bets on crude oil and natural gas prices. When the commodity moves, all three move together. Company-specific strategy (Exxon's scale, Chevron's discipline, Conoco's pure exploration-and-production focus) creates smaller differences than the commodity itself.
What about dividends?
Dividends are central to the oil-major investment case, with yields typically 3 to 5 percent. These figures are price-only and therefore understate the total return by a large margin over a decade. Include dividends and every line moves up.
Is energy a good inflation hedge?
Historically yes, and 2022 was a textbook example: energy stocks surged while most other sectors fell during the inflation spike. The catch is that energy also falls hardest during demand-driven recessions, as 2020 showed.
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For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. All calculations are based on split-adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance and do not account for dividends, taxes, or trading fees. See our methodology and full disclaimer.